Montreal vs New York City Winner?

Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Montreal vs New York City Winner?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 25, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume and open interest despite a 4-cent spread and extreme 4110% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0-cent price is likely a stale or erroneous quote rather than genuine market consensus.

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99¢
Bid/Ask 99/100¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $113,193.93·OI $59,136.55·Closes Apr 25, 2026·14d remaining
KXMLSGAME-26APR25MTLNYC-MTL
7-day price141 snapshots · 15 regime
99¢99¢ current
Apr 1826¢Apr 25

Analysis

5d ago

This market exhibits severe illiquidity dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume and open interest despite a 4-cent spread and extreme 4110% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0-cent price is likely a stale or erroneous quote rather than genuine market consensus. The market closes in just 20 days (5/9/2026) while the underlying MLS match was originally scheduled for 4/25/2026, creating ambiguity about whether this event has already occurred or been postponed, which could explain the complete absence of trading activity. The astronomical realized volatility of 1266% and 1.92 vol ratio indicate this is either a highly speculative micro-market or experiencing data anomalies, warranting extreme caution before any position entry.

Resolution rules

If Montreal wins the Montreal vs New York City professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 228.2%
IY (No) 30174.0%
Adj IY 29190%
CRI 12
RV 689%
VR 2.89
▶ Full indicator table (8)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)228.2%
IY (No)30174.0%
Adj IY29190%
CRI12
RV689%
VR2.89
IAR0.7/h
LAS0.03

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/25/2026, 9:24:27 PM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 8:38:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXMLSGAME-26APR25MTLNYC-MTL yes 100

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