When will OpenAI IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that When will OpenAI IPO?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Kalshi, closing December 1, 2026. The market is pricing in a 36% probability of OpenAI going public by end-2026, down 5 cents over the past week, suggesting declining near-term IPO expectations despite the substantial 297% implied yield for Yes bettors.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 36% probability of OpenAI going public by end-2026, down 5 cents over the past week, suggesting declining near-term IPO expectations despite the substantial 297% implied yield for Yes bettors. With only $224 in 24-hour volume against $9,002.50 open interest, liquidity is notably thin relative to position size, creating potential execution challenges and widening the risk-adjusted yield to 149%. The 1-cent spread and low cliff risk index (2) indicate relatively stable pricing, though the asymmetric yield profile—Yes at 297% versus No at 86%—suggests the market may be underpricing either IPO probability or the time value of waiting 228 days for resolution.
Resolution rules
If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOOPENAI-26DEC01 yes 100