What is the current probability for "San Jose wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 15¢ (15% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 10, 2026. 17 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "San Jose wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 71145.8% and 68.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "San Jose wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

San Jose wins by over 2.5 goals?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that San Jose wins by over 2.5 goals?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing May 10, 2026.

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15¢

Bid/Ask 3/14¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $35.35·OI $35.35·Closes May 10, 2026·17d remaining

KXMLSSPREAD-26APR25STLSJ-SJ2

7-day price63 snapshots

3¢3¢ current

Apr 211¢Apr 23

Resolution rules

If San Jose wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Saint Louis vs San Jose professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 71145.8%

IY (No) 68.1%

Adj IY 71146%

CRI 32

RV 8955%

VR 1.55

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	71145.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	68.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	71146%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	8955%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.55	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

11¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 10:32:16 AM

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 10:23:13 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLSSPREAD-26APR25STLSJ-SJ2 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

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