What is the current probability for "Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2031. 1707 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 284.1% and 1.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2031. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $517 open interest, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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12¢

Bid/Ask 7/13¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $517·Closes Jan 1, 2031·1707d remaining

KXNEXTSPEAKER-31-SSCA

Analysis

13d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $517 open interest, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 281.8% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated by the low price and long 1,721-day timeframe, while the wide 5¢ spread reflects thin order books. With a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 13 and neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in Scalise's relatively low odds of becoming Speaker before 2031, though the lack of trading activity suggests limited conviction either way.

Resolution rules

If Steve Scalise is the first Speaker of the House after Mike Johnson, before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 284.1%

IY (No) 1.6%

Adj IY 142%

CRI 13

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	284.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	142%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 4:22:57 PM

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 4:08:09 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNEXTSPEAKER-31-SSCA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →