Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$90
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
1652 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?: Hakeem Jeffries
KXNEXTSPEAKER-31-HJEF
Cluster 2
Will Jim Jordan be the next Speaker of the House
Will Jim Jordan be the next Speaker of the House?: Jim Jordan
KXNEXTSPEAKER-31-JJOR
Cluster 3
Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House
Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House?: Steve Scalise
KXNEXTSPEAKER-31-SSCA
Analysis
This 31% probability reflects the likelihood that Steve Scalise becomes Speaker of the House in the current congressional term. Scalise, a Louisiana Republican, previously served as House Majority Leader before health issues led to his resignation in 2024. The current probability balances his established leadership credentials and relationships within Republican caucuses against significant uncertainty about whether a Speaker vacancy will occur and whether he would be the consensus choice among Republicans if one did. Factors affecting this estimate include shifts in Republican party dynamics, potential challenges to current leadership, and Scalise's health status and future political ambitions. The most immediate catalyst would be any formal announcement regarding current Speaker tenure or Scalise's stated intentions regarding a leadership bid.
- ›Steve Scalise's current political status and whether he maintains active involvement in House leadership decisions following his 2024 resignation
- ›Current Speaker's political stability and the probability of a Speaker vacancy occurring before the next congressional session
- ›Consensus among House Republican members—Scalise would need broad support from both centrist and conservative factions to secure the position
- ›Competing candidates and their relative strength in a potential Speaker election, which would directly impact Scalise's path to the role
- ›Scalise's public statements or actions indicating whether he is actively pursuing or has ruled out a Speaker candidacy
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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