What is the current probability for "Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 53¢ (53% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 25, 2027. 278 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 121.1% and 142.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 53% probability that Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division?. This contract trades at 53¢ on Kalshi, closing January 25, 2027. The market is pricing Baltimore at 54% to win the AFC North, but the extremely high implied yields (123.6% for Yes, 133.9% for No) suggest significant mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the modest $24,571 open interest and zero 24-hour volume.

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53¢

Bid/Ask 52/53¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $24,631·Closes Jan 25, 2027·278d remaining

KXNFLAFCNORTH-27-BAL

7-day price5 snapshots · 8 regime

52¢52¢ current

Apr 1350¢Apr 19

Analysis

5d ago

The market is pricing Baltimore at 54% to win the AFC North, but the extremely high implied yields (123.6% for Yes, 133.9% for No) suggest significant mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the modest $24,571 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The flat price action over seven days combined with the wide 3¢ spread indicates this market lacks conviction and active trading, making the 54¢ price potentially unreliable as a probability estimate despite the neutral regime score.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 39¢(Δ +14¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.76IY 222.4%Close-time delta 519h

Resolution rules

If Baltimore wins the Pro Football AFC North Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 121.1%

IY (No) 142.1%

Adj IY 70%

CRI 1

Overround -0.0%

LAS 0.02

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	121.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	142.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	70%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:19:07 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:08:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLAFCNORTH-27-BAL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →