Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2026 AFC North?
Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2026 AFC North?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Polymarket, closing January 4, 2027. The Ravens contract has surged 44% over seven days to 56¢, reflecting strong bullish conviction, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume despite $67.484 in open interest and an unusually wide 57¢ spread, suggesting potential illiquidity or stale pricing.
Analysis
The Ravens contract has surged 44% over seven days to 56¢, reflecting strong bullish conviction, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume despite $67.484 in open interest and an unusually wide 57¢ spread, suggesting potential illiquidity or stale pricing. The extreme 850% realized volatility and 6.42 vol ratio indicate this is a highly unstable market with sharp price swings, while the 156.7% implied yield on the yes side appears attractive but carries substantial cliff risk given the thin trading activity. With 263 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of 3.6 events per hour, expect continued volatility as the 2026 season approaches, though the lack of recent volume raises questions about whether the 56¢ price reflects genuine consensus or merely the last trade executed.
Also on kalshi at 52¢(Δ -3¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that is declared as the AFC North division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. If multiple teams tie atop the division, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the NFL. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this division within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x74472d82bf55db42f9a30e354f92f86d09d39b3cd6b368e3f17c69ebe3d54e44 yes 100