Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC North Division
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 25, 2027
127 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division
Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Baltimore
KXNFLAFCNORTH-27-BAL
Cluster 2
Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC North Division
Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Pittsburgh
KXNFLAFCNORTH-27-PIT
Cluster 3
Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC North Division
Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Cincinnati
KXNFLAFCNORTH-27-CIN
Analysis
This 24% probability reflects the market's assessment that Pittsburgh has roughly a one-in-four chance of winning the AFC North division title in the 2026 NFL season. The Steelers trail Cincinnati (33%) and Baltimore (45%) in current market odds, suggesting traders view them as less likely to secure the division. Pittsburgh's probability is driven by its roster composition, recent performance trajectory, and how it compares to divisional rivals entering the season. The primary catalyst affecting this probability will be actual game results through the 2026 regular season, with early-season performance and key injury developments likely to shift expectations significantly. Week 1-4 divisional matchups and roster health status represent the near-term events most likely to clarify whether Pittsburgh's division prospects improve or deteriorate from current market levels.
- ›Pittsburgh's win-loss record in divisional games during the 2026 regular season directly determines whether the 24% probability holds or shifts
- ›Quarterback and key offensive skill position player availability and performance against division rivals affects competitive positioning
- ›Baltimore's 45% and Cincinnati's 33% market probabilities indicate traders expect those teams to more likely capture the division; Pittsburgh would need to outpace both to reach 50%+
- ›Head-to-head results in Pittsburgh versus Baltimore and Cincinnati matchups carry outsized importance for tiebreaker scenarios
- ›Trade deadline moves (deadline occurs mid-season) involving any of the four division teams could materially alter playoff positioning and divisional winner probability
What moved the line
- Sep 18Cincinnati↓7pp36→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Baltimore↑4pp47→51¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 1d
- Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026last 83% · 2d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 7d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 7d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25last 84% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.