What is the current probability for "Will Rueben Bain Jr. be the 1st Edge drafted?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 6¢ (6% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 3, 2026. 10 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Rueben Bain Jr. be the 1st Edge drafted?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 57332.4% and 233.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Rueben Bain Jr. be the 1st Edge drafted?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Rueben Bain Jr. be the 1st Edge drafted?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Rueben Bain Jr. be the 1st Edge drafted?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing May 3, 2026. This micro-liquidity market shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) with a wide 6¢ spread, suggesting the 8¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus.

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6¢

Bid/Ask 0/7¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $350.95·Closes May 3, 2026·10d remaining

KXNFLDRAFTEDGE-26P1-RBAI

7-day price4 snapshots · 2 regime

8¢6¢ current

Apr 83¢Apr 21

Analysis

6d ago

This micro-liquidity market shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) with a wide 6¢ spread, suggesting the 8¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The extreme implied yield of 25,431% on the Yes side is a mathematical artifact of the low price rather than a realistic return expectation, and the high Cliff Risk Index of 12 indicates significant uncertainty about resolution mechanics. With only 17 days to expiry and $229 total open interest, this market lacks sufficient depth for meaningful analysis and carries substantial execution risk.

Resolution rules

If Rueben Bain Jr. is the 1st Edge drafted in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 57332.4%

IY (No) 233.6%

Adj IY 28666%

CRI 16

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	57332.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	233.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	28666%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 2:41:06 PM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 2:38:13 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLDRAFTEDGE-26P1-RBAI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →