What is the current probability for "Will Carson Beck be the 4th Quarterback drafted?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 26¢ (26% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 3, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Carson Beck be the 4th Quarterback drafted?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 11604.6% and 1432.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Carson Beck be the 4th Quarterback drafted?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Carson Beck be the 4th Quarterback drafted?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will Carson Beck be the 4th Quarterback drafted?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing May 3, 2026. This market is essentially illiquid with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price unreliable for serious trading.

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26¢

Bid/Ask 25/28¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $557.93·OI $537.74·Closes May 3, 2026·9d remaining

KXNFLDRAFTQB-26P4-CBEC

7-day price40 snapshots · 2 regime

28¢26¢ current

Apr 135¢Apr 24

Analysis

7d ago

This market is essentially illiquid with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price unreliable for serious trading. The extreme 41,886% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine edge, while the massive 25¢ spread indicates virtually no market makers are willing to facilitate trades at scale. With just 17 days to the 2026 NFL Draft and near-zero liquidity, this appears to be a speculative stub market rather than a meaningful price discovery mechanism.

Resolution rules

If Carson Beck is the 4th Quarterback drafted in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 11604.6%

IY (No) 1432.6%

Adj IY 11605%

CRI 3

RV 2253%

VR 1.00

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	11604.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1432.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	11605%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2253%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.00	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 3:19:37 PM

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 3:08:44 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLDRAFTQB-26P4-CBEC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →