Will Taylen Green be the 2nd Quarterback drafted
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
1 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
966 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Green Bay
KXSB-27-GB
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Taylen Green will be selected second overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. At 3%, the market considers this outcome unlikely relative to other quarterback prospects. The current low probability likely reflects uncertainty about Green's draft position amid competition from other highly-rated quarterback prospects and questions about team needs at that pick. The primary catalyst for movement would be Green's on-field performance during the 2026 college football season and how his draft stock evolves relative to other quarterback prospects. Additionally, news about which teams hold early picks and their potential quarterback needs would inform market expectations about the likelihood of a quarterback going second overall versus other positions.
- ›Taylen Green's performance metrics during the 2026 college football season relative to other top quarterback prospects
- ›The identity and reported quarterback needs of teams holding the first and second overall picks in 2027
- ›Evaluations from NFL scouts and draft analysts regarding Green's readiness and fit for pro-level play
- ›Whether quarterback-needy teams prioritize reaching for Green at second or wait for later picks
- ›Historical draft patterns showing how often quarterbacks are selected in the top two positions versus other positions
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Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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