What is the current probability for "Will Garrett Nussmeier be the 4th Quarterback drafted?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 50¢ (50% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 3, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Garrett Nussmeier be the 4th Quarterback drafted?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 9513.7% and 1747.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Garrett Nussmeier be the 4th Quarterback drafted?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Garrett Nussmeier be the 4th Quarterback drafted?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Garrett Nussmeier be the 4th Quarterback drafted?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing May 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $11.77 in 24-hour volume and a massive 35¢ spread, making the 45¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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50¢

Bid/Ask 30/53¢·Spread 23¢·Vol $996.17·OI $927.81·Closes May 3, 2026·9d remaining

KXNFLDRAFTQB-26P4-GNUS

7-day price74 snapshots · 2 regime

48¢29¢ current

Apr 1310¢Apr 24

Analysis

7d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $11.77 in 24-hour volume and a massive 35¢ spread, making the 45¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The astronomical 19,865.7% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic red flag for thin markets where even tiny position sizes can generate misleading return metrics. With just 17 days to resolution and a high cliff risk index of 9, this contract faces significant binary event risk around the NFL Draft, making it suitable only for sophisticated traders comfortable with execution challenges and potential slippage.

Resolution rules

If Garrett Nussmeier is the 4th Quarterback drafted in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 9513.7%

IY (No) 1747.4%

Adj IY 9514%

CRI 2

RV 1763%

VR 1.50

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	9513.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1747.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	9514%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1763%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.50	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

23¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 3:19:36 PM

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 3:08:44 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLDRAFTQB-26P4-GNUS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →