What is the current probability for "Will Taylen Green be the 4th Quarterback drafted?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 3, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Taylen Green be the 4th Quarterback drafted?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 97855.2% and 169.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Taylen Green be the 4th Quarterback drafted?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Taylen Green be the 4th Quarterback drafted?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Taylen Green be the 4th Quarterback drafted?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing May 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $386 open interest, making the 34¢ spread largely meaningless for actual trading.

█░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

3¢

Bid/Ask 3/20¢·Spread 17¢·Vol $874.96·OI $1,261.3·Closes May 3, 2026·9d remaining

KXNFLDRAFTQB-26P4-TGRE

7-day price102 snapshots · 7 regime

13¢3¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 24

Analysis

7d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $386 open interest, making the 34¢ spread largely meaningless for actual trading. The absurd 19,865.7% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the microscopic position sizes rather than genuine market opportunity, and the sharp 7-day decline from 12¢ to 10¢ suggests deteriorating conviction among the few holders. With just 17 days until expiry and a 9/10 cliff risk index, this contract is approaching resolution with minimal liquidity to execute any meaningful position.

Resolution rules

If Taylen Green is the 4th Quarterback drafted in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 97855.2%

IY (No) 169.9%

Adj IY 73391%

CRI 24

RV 24330%

VR 2.98

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	97855.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	169.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	73391%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	24330%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.98	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

17¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 3:19:38 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 3:08:44 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLDRAFTQB-26P4-TGRE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →