What is the current probability for "Boston wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 18¢ (18% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 7, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Boston wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 12519.7% and 525.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Boston wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Boston wins by over 2.5 goals?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Boston wins by over 2.5 goals?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows zero liquidity with no volume or open interest despite a wide 29¢ spread, suggesting it's either newly listed or abandoned by traders.

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18¢

Bid/Ask 17/19¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $308·OI $1,142.25·Closes May 7, 2026·14d remaining

KXNHLSPREAD-26APR23BUFBOS-BOS2

7-day price235 snapshots · 21 regime

18¢17¢ current

Apr 171¢Apr 23

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows zero liquidity with no volume or open interest despite a wide 29¢ spread, suggesting it's either newly listed or abandoned by traders. The 0¢ display price appears to be a data artifact given the 29¢ spread, and the flat 7-day price movement at 2¢ indicates minimal market activity. With the underlying game scheduled for April 23, 2026 but the market closing May 7, 2026, there's a timing discrepancy that warrants clarification on whether this reflects a postponement or data error.

Resolution rules

If Boston wins by over 2.5 goals in the Buffalo at Boston professional hockey game originally scheduled for Apr 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 12519.7%

IY (No) 525.2%

Adj IY 12520%

CRI 5

RV 4835%

VR 0.80

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	12519.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	525.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	12520%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	4835%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.80	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 5:33:41 PM

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 5:23:13 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNHLSPREAD-26APR23BUFBOS-BOS2 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →