Will Alec Pierce be traded?
Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will Alec Pierce be traded?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Polymarket, closing July 22, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with an 81¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume despite $23.7k open interest, suggesting the 42¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with an 81¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume despite $23.7k open interest, suggesting the 42¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 516% implied yield on "Yes" is extraordinarily high and likely a mispricing artifact from the wide spread rather than genuine market conviction about Pierce being traded within 94 days. The 629% realized volatility and 3.06 vol ratio indicate this is a highly speculative position with minimal price discovery, making it unreliable for directional prediction.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed NFL player is traded by July 22, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x37d9713972e16e01b10fc219587266afcf74fd2a419a47f6311d9a89eed32002 yes 100