What is the current probability for "Edmonton wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 48¢ (48% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 11, 2026. 18 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Edmonton wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 27538.7% and 156.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Edmonton wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Edmonton wins by over 2.5 goals?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Edmonton wins by over 2.5 goals?. This contract trades at 48¢ on Kalshi, closing May 11, 2026. This market shows zero trading activity with $0 volume and open interest, indicating complete illiquidity despite a 61¢ spread—a massive gap suggesting no recent price discovery.

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48¢

Bid/Ask 7/46¢·Spread 39¢·Vol $19·OI $59.99·Closes May 11, 2026·18d remaining

KXNHLSPREAD-26APR26EDMANA-EDM2

7-day price116 snapshots · 2 regime

20¢7¢ current

Apr 191¢Apr 23

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows zero trading activity with $0 volume and open interest, indicating complete illiquidity despite a 61¢ spread—a massive gap suggesting no recent price discovery. The 0¢ price implies the market maker has assigned essentially zero probability to Edmonton winning by 2.5+ goals, which seems extreme for a professional hockey matchup and warrants skepticism about whether this reflects true market consensus or simply reflects the absence of any trades. With expiration on 5/11/2026 (approximately 18 months out), the distant timeline combined with zero liquidity makes this market effectively non-functional for trading purposes.

Resolution rules

If Edmonton wins by over 2.5 goals in the Edmonton at Anaheim professional hockey game originally scheduled for Apr 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 27538.7%

IY (No) 156.0%

Adj IY 27539%

CRI 13

RV 13149%

VR 3.37

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	27538.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	156.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	27539%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	13149%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.37	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

39¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 10:53:40 AM

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 10:53:13 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNHLSPREAD-26APR26EDMANA-EDM2 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →