2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $386 open interest, making the 37¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $386 open interest, making the 37¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 104% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated relative to the 32.9% No yield, suggesting either underpricing of the nomination probability or significant uncertainty about the film's Oscar viability. With 624 days until expiration and a low cliff risk index of 2, there's ample time for new information about "The Social Reckoning" to emerge, though the near-zero trading activity indicates minimal market conviction in either direction.
Resolution rules
If The Social Reckoning has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMASPLAY-27-SOC yes 100