2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents the 60% probability that a specific film or screenplay will receive a Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nomination at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. The current pricing reflects modest confidence among traders, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about which screenplays voters will select. The nomination field typically narrows between now and late 2026, as industry prognosticators identify frontrunners based on festival performance, critical reception, and guild recognition patterns. The Writers Guild Awards eligibility and nominations (usually January-February 2027) will serve as a key signal of adapted screenplay momentum. Additionally, major film festival selections and critical consensus building over the next 8-10 months will substantially influence trader expectations. The low contract volumes suggest limited trading activity, which can amplify price sensitivity to new information about eligible films and their industry positioning.

• ›Writers Guild Awards nominations for adapted screenplay category (typically January-February 2027) will provide direct evidence of peer recognition and shift expectations
• ›Major film festivals (Venice, Toronto, NYFF) over fall 2026 will affect which adapted screenplays gain critical legitimacy and award-season visibility
• ›The specific films competing for nominations will not be fully defined until studios finalize 2026-2027 release schedules and submission strategies
• ›Trading volume remains low ($180-697 daily across top contracts), indicating limited market conviction and potential for repricing as more information emerges
• ›Historical Academy voting patterns show adapted screenplays from prestige dramas and literary adaptations dominate nominations, which will influence which projects receive trader attention

What moved the line

• Jul 22The Invite↑14pp63→77¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 21The Invite↑10pp53→63¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 21Wildwood↑8pp5→13¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 21The Social Reckoning↑7pp28→35¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 22Wildwood↓6pp13→7¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds