2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $300 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 27¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $300 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 27¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 249.5% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and likely reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine edge, while the 8¢ spread represents nearly 30% of the mid-price. With over 600 days until resolution and a moderate cliff risk index of 4, there's substantial time for the Wildwood nomination odds to shift, though the neutral regime suggests no immediate catalysts are priced in.
Resolution rules
If Wildwood has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMASPLAY-27-WIL yes 100