2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows virtually no trading activity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 8¢ spread and modest $755.67 open interest, suggesting minimal liquidity for a contract expiring in nearly two years.
Analysis
This market shows virtually no trading activity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 8¢ spread and modest $755.67 open interest, suggesting minimal liquidity for a contract expiring in nearly two years. The 43¢ price implies a relatively balanced view on Dune: Part Three's nomination chances, though the asymmetric implied yields (77.6% for Yes versus 44.2% for No) indicate the market may be pricing in significant tail risk or structural mispricing. With extremely high realized volatility at 117% and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative, illiquid market where large price swings could occur on minimal information arrival.
Resolution rules
If Dune: Part Three has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMASPLAY-27-DUN yes 100