What is the current probability for "PGA Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 55¢ (55% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 14, 2026. 51 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "PGA Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1279.5% and 404.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "PGA Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PGA Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that PGA Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing June 14, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 49¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity and unreliable pricing.

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55¢

Bid/Ask 36/70¢·Spread 34¢·Vol $0·OI $5.81·Closes Jun 14, 2026·51d remaining

KXPGATOP10-PGC26-JRAH

7-day price50 snapshots · 3 regime

44¢36¢ current

Apr 1935¢Apr 22

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 49¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity and unreliable pricing. The 0¢ Yes price implies an implausibly low 0% probability for a golfer of Rahm's caliber, while the 1226% implied yield on Yes reflects the distorted pricing rather than genuine market conviction. With 55 days to expiry and realized volatility at 408%, this appears to be a thin, potentially mispriced market that lacks sufficient liquidity for meaningful analysis.

Resolution rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 PGA Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1279.5%

IY (No) 404.9%

Adj IY 640%

CRI 2

Overround 2.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1279.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	404.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	640%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

34¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 10:58:00 AM

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXPGATOP10-PGC26-JRAH yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →