What is the current probability for "PGA Championship: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 20?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 52¢ (52% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 14, 2026. 51 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "PGA Championship: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 20?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1602.0% and 323.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "PGA Championship: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 20?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PGA Championship: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 20?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that PGA Championship: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 20?. This contract trades at 52¢ on Kalshi, closing June 14, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 69¢ spread and 0¢ current price unreliable indicators of true probability.

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52¢

Bid/Ask 31/77¢·Spread 46¢·Vol $0·OI $46.24·Closes Jun 14, 2026·51d remaining

KXPGATOP20-PGC26-CMOR

7-day price4 snapshots · 6 regime

32¢31¢ current

Apr 1930¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 69¢ spread and 0¢ current price unreliable indicators of true probability. The astronomical 1521% implied yield on the Yes side suggests the market is severely mispriced or simply inactive rather than reflecting genuine belief that Morikawa won't finish top 20 at a major championship. With 56 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, this appears to be a dead market awaiting either significant liquidity injection or natural resolution.

Resolution rules

If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 PGA Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1602.0%

IY (No) 323.4%

Adj IY 801%

CRI 2

Overround 5.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1602.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	323.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	801%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	5.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

46¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 10:56:14 AM

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXPGATOP20-PGC26-CMOR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →