PGA Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that PGA Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing June 14, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of thin-volume contracts, with only $6 in 24-hour volume and a massive 65¢ bid-ask spread that creates a 3,322% risk-adjusted implied yield.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of thin-volume contracts, with only $6 in 24-hour volume and a massive 65¢ bid-ask spread that creates a 3,322% risk-adjusted implied yield. The 74¢ price implies McIlroy has a 74% chance of a top-5 finish at a major championship, which appears reasonable for an elite golfer, but the asymmetric yields (6,644% on Yes vs. 65% on No) and high Cliff Risk Index of 10 suggest the market is severely mispriced or illiquid rather than reflecting genuine edge. With 56 days to the June 2026 event and flat 7-day price action, this contract lacks sufficient depth for meaningful trading and likely reflects minimal market participation rather than informed consensus.
Resolution rules
If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 PGA Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPGATOP5-PGC26-RMCI yes 100