PGA Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?
Prediction markets currently give a 76% probability that PGA Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?. This contract trades at 76¢ on Kalshi, closing June 14, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 9¢ price implying only 9% odds that the world's top-ranked golfer finishes top 5 at a major championship—a historically improbable outcome given Scheffler's recent dominance.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a 9¢ price implying only 9% odds that the world's top-ranked golfer finishes top 5 at a major championship—a historically improbable outcome given Scheffler's recent dominance. The astronomical 6666.6% implied yield on Yes contracts combined with minimal $6 daily volume and $127 open interest suggests severe illiquidity is driving the distortion, while the 68¢ spread indicates wide uncertainty between buyers and sellers. With 55 days to the June 2026 event and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this appears to be a liquidity-starved market where the price may not reflect true probability, presenting potential value for contrarian bettors confident in Scheffler's elite status.
Resolution rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 PGA Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPGATOP5-PGC26-SSCH yes 100