Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2028. This market shows extreme mispricing with a massive 176.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 12.5% on the No side, suggesting the 21¢ price significantly undervalues the modest 0.01-0.99% growth range given NYC's recent population recovery trends.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a massive 176.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 12.5% on the No side, suggesting the 21¢ price significantly undervalues the modest 0.01-0.99% growth range given NYC's recent population recovery trends. The wide 28¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the price potentially unreliable despite the substantial $4,203 open interest. With 776 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 4, the market has time for price discovery, but the neutral regime and recent 3¢ decline warrant caution before treating this as a clear arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
If New York City experiences a population increase of between 0.01% to 0.99% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-0.01-0.99 yes 100