Will New York City experience population increase 3% or more during 2025-2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will New York City experience population increase 3% or more during 2025-2027?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2028. This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of thin-volume contracts, with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 98¢ spread and only $2,385 open interest.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of thin-volume contracts, with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 98¢ spread and only $2,385 open interest. The 8¢ price implies just an 8% probability of NYC gaining 3%+ population over two years, which appears pessimistic given the city's recent recovery trajectory and the substantial 540.8% implied yield on the Yes side suggesting significant underpricing. The sharp seven-day rally from 1¢ to 8¢ combined with the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 12 indicates potential for volatile repricing, though the contract's 776-day horizon provides ample time for fundamental reassessment before the June 2028 expiration.
Resolution rules
If New York City experiences a population increase of between 3% or more between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-3-NA yes 100