Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in China?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in China?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2028. This illiquid market shows extreme asymmetry with a 373% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 3.6% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or very low conviction among traders given the $0 24-hour volume and thin $354 open interest.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows extreme asymmetry with a 373% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 3.6% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or very low conviction among traders given the $0 24-hour volume and thin $354 open interest. The price has spiked dramatically from 1¢ to 9¢ over seven days despite near-zero trading activity, indicating either a single large position or a data anomaly rather than genuine market consensus. With nearly three years until expiration and a 10 Cliff Risk Index, this market lacks sufficient liquidity to be a reliable probability estimate for such a geopolitically complex outcome.
Resolution rules
If the next Putin and Zelenskyy meeting happens in China before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPUTINZELENSKYYLOCATION-28-CHI yes 100