Will Roblox Corporation report above 30 billion hours engaged in Q1 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will Roblox Corporation report above 30 billion hours engaged in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing May 30, 2026. The market is pricing in an 82% probability that Roblox will exceed 30 billion engagement hours in Q1 2026, with the price climbing 7 cents over the past week, suggesting growing confidence in this outcome.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 82% probability that Roblox will exceed 30 billion engagement hours in Q1 2026, with the price climbing 7 cents over the past week, suggesting growing confidence in this outcome. The extreme 3,581% implied yield on the No side indicates severe mispricing or minimal conviction among contrarian bettors, while the modest $225.96 daily volume and tight $249.96 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings as the May 30 expiration approaches in 43 days. The 8-cent spread and elevated cliff risk index (4/10) warrant caution, as late-breaking company guidance or earnings revisions could trigger sharp repricing near resolution.
Resolution rules
If Roblox Corporation reports above 30 billion hours engaged in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRBLX-26APRHOURS-30000000000.0 yes 100