Will Roblox Corporation report above 36 billion hours engaged in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 32 billion
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
92¢
Above 33 billion
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$108
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 27, 2027
187 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Roblox Corporation report Above
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 36 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 36 billion
KXRBLX-26OCTHOURS-36000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 42 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 42 billion
KXRBLX-26OCTHOURS-42000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 41 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 41 billion
KXRBLX-26OCTHOURS-41000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 40 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 40 billion
KXRBLX-26OCTHOURS-40000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 38 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 38 billion
KXRBLX-26OCTHOURS-38000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 37 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 37 billion
KXRBLX-26OCTHOURS-37000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 34 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 34 billion
KXRBLX-26OCTHOURS-34000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 33 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 33 billion
KXRBLX-26OCTHOURS-33000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 166 million daily active users in Q3 2026?: Above 166 million
KXRBLX-26OCTDAU-166000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 162 million daily active users in Q3 2026?: Above 162 million
KXRBLX-26OCTDAU-162000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 158 million daily active users in Q3 2026?: Above 158 million
KXRBLX-26OCTDAU-158000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 154 million daily active users in Q3 2026?: Above 154 million
KXRBLX-26OCTDAU-154000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 150 million daily active users in Q3 2026?: Above 150 million
KXRBLX-26OCTDAU-150000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 146 million daily active users in Q3 2026?: Above 146 million
KXRBLX-26OCTDAU-146000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 142 million daily active users in Q3 2026?: Above 142 million
KXRBLX-26OCTDAU-142000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 138 million daily active users in Q3 2026?: Above 138 million
KXRBLX-26OCTDAU-138000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 35 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 35 billion
KXRBLX-26OCTHOURS-35000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 32 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 32 billion
KXRBLX-26OCTHOURS-32000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 39 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 39 billion
KXRBLX-26OCTHOURS-39000000000
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Roblox will report more than 36 billion hours of user engagement in Q2 2026. The 9-cent contract price suggests traders view this outcome as unlikely but possible. Roblox's engagement metrics have historically been volatile, influenced by new game releases, platform updates, and seasonal user activity patterns. The Q2 period typically captures spring/early summer engagement trends. Resolution depends entirely on Roblox's official Q2 2026 earnings report, expected in late July or early August 2026, which will disclose total hours engaged. The contract structure shows declining probabilities across higher engagement thresholds—markets price 68% odds for above 32 billion hours but only 9% for above 36 billion—indicating uncertainty about whether the platform can sustain growth at the highest end.
- ›Q2 2026 will end June 30, 2026, with results typically reported 3-4 weeks later in late July or early August
- ›Roblox reported approximately 35-36 billion hours engaged in recent quarters; sustaining or exceeding 36 billion represents continued growth or maintenance of peak levels
- ›Seasonal patterns affect engagement; Q2 typically includes spring break and school transitions, which can drive higher user activity
- ›Major platform updates, game releases, or technical outages during April-June 2026 would materially impact the hours engaged figure
- ›The contract's 9-cent price reflects low market conviction for this outcome, suggesting most traders see >36 billion hours as an above-trend result
What moved the line
- Aug 19Above 138 million↓21pp50→29¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 138 million↑21pp29→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 142 million↓15pp37→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 142 million↑15pp22→37¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Above 35 billion↓12pp61→49¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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