Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. The 6¢ price reflects an extremely low 6% probability for Scheffler to complete golf's grand slam by 2028, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 915.5% implied yield—a massive risk-reward asymmetry suggesting either severe underpricing or justified skepticism about the feat's difficulty.
Analysis
The 6¢ price reflects an extremely low 6% probability for Scheffler to complete golf's grand slam by 2028, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 915.5% implied yield—a massive risk-reward asymmetry suggesting either severe underpricing or justified skepticism about the feat's difficulty. The market has declined sharply from 8¢ to 6¢ over seven days despite 625 days remaining, indicating growing conviction that the grand slam won't occur, though the thin $3,026.66 daily volume and elevated 846% realized volatility suggest limited liquidity and high uncertainty. With a Cliff Risk Index of 16 and Info Arrival Rate of only 0.3/hour, this appears to be a niche market where the extreme odds may reflect the genuine rarity of winning all four majors in a single calendar year rather than a misprice.
Resolution rules
If Scottie Scheffler wins the golf grand slam (winning the Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship) in a single year before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSCOTTIESLAM-28 yes 100