Will Sean Plankey be confirmed as CISA Director before May 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Sean Plankey be confirmed as CISA Director before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,908 open interest, and the 4¢ price likely reflects minimal trading rather than informed consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,908 open interest, and the 4¢ price likely reflects minimal trading rather than informed consensus. The astronomical 62,185% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a thin, stale market where the bid-ask spread (4¢) dominates pricing rather than fundamental probability assessment. With only 14 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, this contract carries significant execution risk, making the quoted probability unreliable for decision-making.
Resolution rules
If Sean Plankey is the first person confirmed as CISA Director before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATECONFIRM-26MAY01-SPLA yes 100