Will Dayot Upamecano leave Bayern before Sep 15, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Dayot Upamecano leave Bayern before Sep 15, 2026?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing September 15, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $14 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 1368% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $14 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 1368% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 25-cent price reflects a modest 25% probability of Upamecano's departure, though the wide 10-cent spread and minimal trading activity suggest limited confidence in price discovery. With 151 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 6, this appears to be a speculative niche market that would require significant capital commitment to move meaningfully.
Resolution rules
If Dayot Upamecano transfers out of Bayern before Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-DUPA yes 100