What is the current probability for "Atletico vs Arsenal Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 36¢ (36% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 13, 2026. 19 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Atletico vs Arsenal Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3488.4% and 1011.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Atletico vs Arsenal Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Atletico vs Arsenal Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Atletico vs Arsenal Winner?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing May 13, 2026.

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36¢

Bid/Ask 35/36¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $138,752.8·OI $515,718.18·Closes May 13, 2026·19d remaining

KXUCLGAME-26APR29ATMARS-ATM

7-day price123 snapshots · 116 regime

40¢35¢ current

Apr 155¢Apr 24

Resolution rules

If Atletico wins the Atletico vs Arsenal professional Champions League soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 29, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3488.4%

IY (No) 1011.4%

Adj IY 3389%

CRI 2

RV 207%

VR 0.33

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3488.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1011.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3389%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	207%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.33	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 8:41:39 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 8:38:44 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUCLGAME-26APR29ATMARS-ATM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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