What is the current probability for "Arsenal vs Atletico Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 27¢ (27% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 19, 2026. 25 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Arsenal vs Atletico Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4100.0% and 506.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Arsenal vs Atletico Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Arsenal vs Atletico Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Arsenal vs Atletico Winner?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing May 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 21¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity on Kalshi.

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27¢

Bid/Ask 26/29¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $426.08·OI $1,166.3·Closes May 19, 2026·25d remaining

KXUCLGAME-26MAY05ARSATM-ATM

7-day price97 snapshots · 4 regime

31¢26¢ current

Apr 195¢Apr 23

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 21¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity on Kalshi. The implied probability has surged from 5¢ to 26¢ over seven days—a 420% movement—yet the astronomical 3440.8% implied yield on the Yes side indicates the market is severely mispriced or reflects minimal real conviction given the zero liquidity. With 30 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this appears to be a speculative artifact rather than a functioning prediction market.

Resolution rules

If Atletico wins the Arsenal vs Atletico professional Champions League soccer game originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4100.0%

IY (No) 506.1%

Adj IY 2050%

CRI 3

Overround 0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4100.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	506.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2050%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 10:55:47 AM

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUCLGAME-26MAY05ARSATM-ATM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →