What is the current probability for "Bayern Munich wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 27¢ (27% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 12, 2026. 19 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Bayern Munich wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 9215.3% and 386.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Bayern Munich wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Bayern Munich wins by over 1.5 goals?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Bayern Munich wins by over 1.5 goals?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026.

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27¢

Bid/Ask 17/33¢·Spread 16¢·Vol $87.16·OI $87.16·Closes May 12, 2026·19d remaining

KXUCLSPREAD-26APR28PSGBMU-BMU1

7-day price47 snapshots · 1 regime

18¢17¢ current

Apr 212¢Apr 23

Resolution rules

If Bayern Munich wins by more than 1.5 goals in the PSG vs Bayern Munich professional Champions League soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 28, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 9215.3%

IY (No) 386.6%

Adj IY 3795%

CRI 5

RV 2700%

VR 1.30

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	9215.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	386.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3795%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2700%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.30	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.59	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

16¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 10:56:46 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/23/2026, 10:53:13 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUCLSPREAD-26APR28PSGBMU-BMU1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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