Will Adam Wharton be in the England World Cup final squad?
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will Adam Wharton be in the England World Cup final squad?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing June 18, 2026. This illiquid micro-market on Kalshi shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the No side offering 908.6% annualized return versus 403.8% for Yes, suggesting significant mispricing or that traders expect resolution clarity well before the June 2026 expiry.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market on Kalshi shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the No side offering 908.6% annualized return versus 403.8% for Yes, suggesting significant mispricing or that traders expect resolution clarity well before the June 2026 expiry. The $2.38 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate virtually no trading activity, making the 60¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. With only 60 days to expiry and a 2 Cliff Risk Index, this market is approaching a potential resolution event (World Cup squad announcement), which could explain both the wide 10¢ spread and the outsized yields as traders demand compensation for imminent binary outcome risk.
Resolution rules
If Adam Wharton is selected for the final squad for the England national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWCSQUAD-26ENG-AWHA yes 100