Will the brent crude oil close price be above $80.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 83% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $80.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 83¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market is pricing in a 91% probability that Brent crude will exceed $80.99/barrel by late April 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (494% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 91% probability that Brent crude will exceed $80.99/barrel by late April 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (494% for Yes vs. 22,134% for No) and minimal liquidity ($91 daily volume, $1,868 open interest) suggest this price reflects thin trading rather than deep conviction. The sharp 12-cent rally over seven days combined with a realized volatility of 294% and elevated cliff risk (7/10) indicates significant price instability, making the 91¢ quote potentially unreliable for directional conviction given the illiquid microstructure.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 80.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T80.99 yes 100