SimpleFunctions

Above 0 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026

Above 0 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 0 is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 31¢ bid, 33¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01.

Price history

15¢ current

+13¢
0¢25¢
May 14, 2026May 25, 2026

Contract brief

If the total number of New World screwworm infestation cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 0, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 0 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 0

Rank

#1 of 6

Leader

Above 0 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 0 31¢

Range

3¢-31¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A0

May 25, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 12m ago

Implied probability

15¢
Latest venue quote
May 25, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 12m ago

Bid

31¢

Ask

33¢

Spread

Reported volume

$922

Family rank

#1 of 6

6 outcomes · KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

31 / 33¢

Kalshi
2¢ spread
BidSize
31¢142
26¢125
25¢200
24¢194
17¢12
AskSize
33¢35
34¢110
36¢200
40¢153
49¢32

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the total number of New World screwworm infestation cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 0, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A0

SF Signal
SF Index
183.55
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

367.1%

IY (No)

74.1%

Adj IY

184%

CRI

2

Overround

-0.1%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

367.1%
74.1%
Adj IY
184%
2
Overround
-0.1%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.