Above 10 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$16
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
222 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
above 1 new world screwworm infestation cases in the united states during 2026: above 1
Above 1 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 1
KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A1
Cluster 2
above 0 new world screwworm infestation cases in the united states during 2026: above 0
Above 0 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 0
KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A0
Cluster 3
above 10 new world screwworm infestation cases in the united states during 2026: above 10
Above 10 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 10
KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A10
Cluster 4
above 2 new world screwworm infestation cases in the united states during 2026: above 2
Above 2 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 2
KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A2
Cluster 5
above 3 new world screwworm infestation cases in the united states during 2026: above 3
Above 3 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 3
KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A3
Cluster 6
above 5 new world screwworm infestation cases in the united states during 2026: above 5
Above 5 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 5
KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A5
What moved the line
- May 17Above 1↑7pp20→27¢ · Kalshi
- May 17Above 0↑7pp27→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 17Above 2↑5pp16→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Above 0↓4pp38→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Above 3↓4pp16→12¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Shenzhen Peng City vs Beijing Guoan WinnerQingdao Hainiulast 31% · 0d
- Brentford at Manchester Unitedlast 64% · 0d
- Brentford wins by over 2.5 goalslast 19% · 0d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FClast 60% · 0d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC - More Marketslast 83% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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