SimpleFunctions

Above 10 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026

Above 10 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 10 is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 6 inside KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01.

Price history

4¢ current

+2¢
0¢5¢
May 14, 2026May 23, 2026

Contract brief

If the total number of New World screwworm infestation cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 10, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 10 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 10

Rank

#6 of 6

Leader

Above 0 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 0 32¢

Range

3¢-32¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A10

May 27, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 2m ago

Implied probability

4¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 2m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$50

Family rank

#6 of 6

6 outcomes · KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 8¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
100¢50
3¢5
2¢100
AskSize
8¢5
9¢5
10¢211
11¢200
16¢83

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the total number of New World screwworm infestation cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 10, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A10

SF Signal
SF Index
2691.96
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

5383.9%

IY (No)

5.1%

Adj IY

2692%

CRI

32

Overround

-0.1%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

5383.9%
5.1%
Adj IY
2692%
32
Overround
-0.1%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.