Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
5¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$16K
Identifier
0xecb13775...5f88
Jun 8, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$978
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$16K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xecb13775…5f88
Event family
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$16K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31 6¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.