Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$16K
2 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
103 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027” vs “Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?: Before 2027
KXSATOSHIBTCYEAR-27
Cluster 2
Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET
Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Before January 2027
KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC
Analysis
This market tracks the likelihood that Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, will move any of the approximately 1 million Bitcoin held at addresses associated with their early mining activity between now and January 2027. A 16% probability suggests market participants view this as unlikely but non-negligible. The estimate reflects several tensions: Satoshi's 14-year pattern of inactivity argues against movement, yet rising Bitcoin prices increase the incentive to transact, and any movement could signal major developments. The primary driver of this probability is Satoshi's demonstrated dormancy—no confirmed transactions since 2010. The market resolves through blockchain verification of transactions from Satoshi's known addresses, which would be publicly verifiable and impossible to dispute, making this one of the clearest possible binary outcomes in cryptocurrency markets.
- ›Satoshi's dormancy period: 16 years of inactivity since 2010, with no confirmed transactions or key movements despite Bitcoin reaching $100,000+ valuations multiple times
- ›Bitcoin price incentives: Current prices create enormous financial incentive for any legitimate Satoshi to move coins, potentially increasing probability from historical patterns
- ›Address monitoring technology: Any movement from known Satoshi addresses would be immediately detected by blockchain analysts and markets, making concealment impossible
- ›Historical movement patterns: Analysis of when Satoshi last demonstrated activity (2010) and whether any clustering of events might trigger action
- ›Regulatory/legal factors: Potential legal claims, jurisdictional issues, or regulatory changes that might compel or prevent movement by Satoshi or heirs
What moved the line
- Sep 18Before January 2027↑7pp17→24¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Before January 2027↑4pp24→28¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Before January 2027↓3pp20→17¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?last 40% · 1d
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 49% · 1d
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?$76,500 or abovelast 68% · 2d
- Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Sep 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ETlast 93% · 29d
- Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029last 17% · 67d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (16% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In bitcoin
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.