Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 6 contracts. Kalshi at 10%, Polymarket at 36% — a 26pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
3 contracts
Polymarket
36%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
26pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$55K
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
208 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 10¢ · Polymarket 36¢ · 26pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (10¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (36¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin” vs “Will Bitcoin be above $100000”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin
Cluster 2
Will Bitcoin be above $100000
Cluster 3
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
0xb00e79…58f7
Cluster 4
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
0xecb137…5f88
What moved the line
- Jun 4Before January 2027↓5pp28→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Before January 2027↓4pp33→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Before January 2027↓4pp29→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Before October 2026↓3pp17→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Before January 2027↑3pp25→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.