Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+1pp
20h ago
24h volume
$875
2 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
136 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET” vs “Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET
Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Before January 2027
KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC
Cluster 2
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?: Before 2027
KXSATOSHIBTCYEAR-27
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?last 44% · 1d
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?$76,500 or abovelast 77% · 1d
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 72% · 1d
- Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029last 17% · 34d
- Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026last 17% · 48d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (9% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In bitcoin
Related reading
Bitcoin Market Sees 54% Chance of $50k Before $100k
Bitcoin prediction markets show low probability of reaching $200k by 2027, but a near-term tug-of-war between $50k and $100k. Ethereum sentiment is more positive.
Bitcoin price targets for 2027 show heavy bearish bias; 57¢ chance below $55k
Bitcoin markets show low probability of $200k+ by 2027 (2¢) and a 57% chance of falling below $55k, indicating bearish sentiment. The $100k threshold by year-end 2026 is only 12¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.