Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
This contract is priced at 19¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 18¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 2¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
9
Family volume
$46K
Best sibling
≥4.7% 1¢
Ticker
0x6a006091…488e
Price history
19¢ current
−2¢Orderbook snapshot
18 / 20¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 8, 2026
Identifier
0x6a006091…488e
Event family
April Unemployment Rate.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$46K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
4.3% 34¢
Current share
24%
4.4%
polymarket · 0x6a0060911cc9c2d139607de13ba928b43735ea95d245fa72535ccc126a48488e
≥4.7%
polymarket · 0x95ab0225218b6b2c27ec5c69d6de7ac342e12ada43beb7fb9deae27ea7b4079f
4.6%
polymarket · 0x96362bfec0f2dd81545274779ad08a10fd3d8433f0b6f89965fb882cb1a90523
4.2%
polymarket · 0xd53e9c23da296b3f7925868de884c77b848f80ba1de074ca0a9028d7c1453ed6
4.5%
polymarket · 0x9a365d544bd32ce0b5dfa38b2076a815a5870ca66a4abbe7eccdf8f21f8de477
4.3%
polymarket · 0xb993bafc61c9039df0d269acc8cf50438293ef87ee9d35e62ce9759b5e3321b1
4.1%
polymarket · 0x5728a8537d747921d015613afb5e171ae504b1f26c037650729c62002d10334e
4.0%
polymarket · 0x5fb25431e56ddc48a244e2845a0c5ad8d80d83612eb52fb33071942b2b2631bc
≤3.9%
polymarket · 0x202bbbae676049afe44c40d86b71dc1b0134aab5425cda5afad18d94a2064f80
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
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