People's Bank of China rate change in April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 37%, Polymarket at 10% — a 27pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
17 contracts
Polymarket
10%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
27pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$20K
20 contracts
Top contract
5¢
$4K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 37¢ · Polymarket 10¢ · 27pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (10¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (37¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will the rate of c” vs “China unemployment rate in April 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the rate of c
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.6%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.6
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 4.0%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T4.0
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 2.5%
KXCPICOREYOY-26APR-T2.5
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.7%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.7
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.8%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.8
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.9%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.9
Cluster 2
China unemployment rate in April 2026
China unemployment rate in April 2026?: Above 5.3%
KXUE-CHN26APR-5.3
China unemployment rate in April 2026?: Above 5.2%
KXUE-CHN26APR-5.2
China unemployment rate in April 2026?: Above 5.1%
KXUE-CHN26APR-5.1
China unemployment rate in April 2026?: Above 5.4%
KXUE-CHN26APR-5.4
China unemployment rate in April 2026?: Above 5.0%
KXUE-CHN26APR-5.0
Cluster 3
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in April?: Above 4.3%
KXU3-26APR-T4.3
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in April?: Above 4.2%
KXU3-26APR-T4.2
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in April?: Above 4.4%
KXU3-26APR-T4.4
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in April?: Above 4.1%
KXU3-26APR-T4.1
Cluster 4
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May?: No Change
0x15b285…d6da
Cluster 5
Bank of Mexico Decision in May: No change
Bank of Mexico Decision in May: No change
0xa919b6…ce0d
Cluster 6
Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the May Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting
Cluster 7
April Unemployment Rate: 4.4%
April Unemployment Rate: 4.4%
0x6a0060…488e
Cluster 8
Will France inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.4%
Will France inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%
KXFRCPIPREL-26MAY13-T2.4
What moved the line
- Apr 29Maintain current rate↓47pp65→18¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29No change↓43pp65→22¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30No change↓17pp22→5¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Above 3.6%↑11pp48→59¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Maintain current rate↓11pp18→7¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Other questions in china.
In china
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.