What is the current probability for "Arsenal vs Atletico Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 52¢ (52% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 19, 2026. 25 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Arsenal vs Atletico Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1384.0% and 1499.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Arsenal vs Atletico Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Arsenal vs Atletico Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that Arsenal vs Atletico Winner?. This contract trades at 52¢ on Kalshi, closing May 19, 2026. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield metrics (2575% on Yes) driven by minimal trading volume of just $2.65, with a massive 42¢ spread indicating thin liquidity and wide bid-ask uncertainty.

█████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

52¢

Bid/Ask 51/56¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $418.67·OI $1,118.61·Closes May 19, 2026·25d remaining

KXUCLGAME-26MAY05ARSATM-ARS

7-day price251 snapshots · 4 regime

53¢51¢ current

Apr 195¢Apr 24

Analysis

4d ago

This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield metrics (2575% on Yes) driven by minimal trading volume of just $2.65, with a massive 42¢ spread indicating thin liquidity and wide bid-ask uncertainty. The price has surged dramatically from 5¢ to 74¢ over seven days—a 1,380% move—suggesting either new information favoring Arsenal or speculative positioning in a market with only 30 days to expiry. The neutral regime score and low Cliff Risk Index (2) suggest stable conditions, but traders should be cautious given the extreme yield figures are largely artifacts of low volume rather than genuine opportunity.

Resolution rules

If Arsenal wins the Arsenal vs Atletico professional Champions League soccer game originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1384.0%

IY (No) 1499.3%

Adj IY 750%

CRI 1

Overround 0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1384.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1499.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	750%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 10:54:17 AM

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUCLGAME-26MAY05ARSATM-ARS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →