Arsenal vs Fulham Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Arsenal vs Fulham Winner?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This Arsenal winner contract shows extreme mispricing with a 12,283% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 14¢ pricing, suggesting either severe illiquidity distortion or a data anomaly given the modest $193.4 open interest and $156 daily volume.
Analysis
This Arsenal winner contract shows extreme mispricing with a 12,283% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 14¢ pricing, suggesting either severe illiquidity distortion or a data anomaly given the modest $193.4 open interest and $156 daily volume. The 4¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price level, and the 1,739% realized volatility paired with a 9/10 cliff risk index indicates this market has experienced sharp, discontinuous price movements that don't reflect typical soccer match uncertainty. With 27 days to expiry and the match originally scheduled for May 2, 2026, the resolution mechanics excluding extra time and penalties are clear, but the extreme yield metrics and thin liquidity suggest this contract may be mispriced or experiencing technical issues rather than reflecting genuine market consensus on Arsenal's win probability.
Resolution rules
If Fulham wins the Arsenal vs Fulham professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 2, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEPLGAME-26MAY02ARSFUL-FUL yes 100