Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of May 2026
Justin Bieber is priced at 47¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 46¢ bid, 47¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 12 inside Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of May 2026.
Price history
47¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
If the artist with the most monthly listeners on Spotify on May 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET is Justin Bieber, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Justin Bieber
Rank
#2 of 12
Leader
Bruno Mars 54¢
Range
1¢-54¢
Family volume
$73K
Identifier
KXTOPMONTHLY-26MAY-JUS
May 28, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
46¢
Ask
47¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$48K
Family rank
#2 of 12
12 outcomes · Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of May 2026
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$73K
Orderbook snapshot
46 / 47¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the artist with the most monthly listeners on Spotify on May 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET is Justin Bieber, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
KXTOPMONTHLY-26MAY-JUS
Event family
Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of May 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$73K
Outcomes
12
Highest price
Bruno Mars 54¢
Current share
65%
Bruno Mars
kalshi · KXTOPMONTHLY-26MAY-BRU
Justin Bieber
kalshi · KXTOPMONTHLY-26MAY-JUS
Drake
kalshi · KXTOPMONTHLY-26MAY-DRA
Billie Eilish
kalshi · KXTOPMONTHLY-26MAY-BIL
Bad Bunny
kalshi · KXTOPMONTHLY-26MAY-BAD
Rihanna
kalshi · KXTOPMONTHLY-26MAY-RIH
The Weeknd
kalshi · KXTOPMONTHLY-26MAY-WEE
Kendrick Lamar
kalshi · KXTOPMONTHLY-26MAY-KEN
Taylor Swift
kalshi · KXTOPMONTHLY-26MAY-TAY
Lady Gaga
kalshi · KXTOPMONTHLY-26MAY-LAD
Ed Sheeran
kalshi · KXTOPMONTHLY-26MAY-ED
Ariana Grande
kalshi · KXTOPMONTHLY-26MAY-ARI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
Read 47% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.