Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$206
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
11 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026
Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?: Bruno Mars
KXTOPMONTHLY-26AUG-BRU
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Bruno Mars will have the most monthly listeners on Spotify by August 31, 2026. The 93% confidence level is primarily driven by Bruno Mars' current dominant position on the platform, which has been sustained through consistent streaming and recent releases. The metric would shift down if competitors like The Weeknd, Taylor Swift, or other high-streaming artists release major new projects that capture listener attention in the final weeks of August. The resolution will occur on August 31, 2026, when Spotify publishes official monthly listener counts. Until then, new album releases, viral moments, or shifts in global listener preferences could narrow or widen Bruno Mars' lead. The current contract volume and pricing reflect moderate market confidence in his sustained position.
- ›Bruno Mars' monthly listener count as of early August 2026 compared to the second and third-ranked artists
- ›Release schedules for competing artists during August 2026—new albums or surprise drops could shift listener distribution
- ›Historical volatility in Spotify monthly listeners rankings and typical shifts in the final weeks of a calendar month
- ›Geographic listener trends and regional playlist dominance that could favor competing artists
- ›Streaming behavior patterns around specific release dates and promotional campaigns in the final 3 weeks of August
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.