#2 Spotify artist in March
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
144 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will Drake be the #” vs “Who will be the top Spotify artist this year”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Drake be the #
Will Drake be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTUSA-26-DRA
Will Drake be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTTHIRD-26-DRA
Will Drake be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTRUNNERUP-26-DRA
Cluster 2
Who will be the top Spotify artist this year
Cluster 3
Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026
Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?: Bruno Mars
KXTOPMONTHLY-26AUG-BRU
Cluster 4
will bad bunny be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 5
will taylor swift be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that someone other than Drake will be the #2 most streamed artist on Spotify in March 2026. The current 42% probability reflects mixed signals in the prediction markets: Drake commands dominant odds as #1 artist overall (73% at Kalshi), but Bad Bunny shows stronger positioning for the top spot (78%) in one contract, suggesting uncertainty about the final ranking. The key drivers are streaming volume trends through early 2026 and any major album releases or promotional campaigns from competing artists. The main catalyst is Spotify's release of its March 2026 streaming data, which will definitively settle the ranking. Until then, the probability hinges on real-time streaming metrics from established artists and whether any surprise releases gain significant traction early in the year.
- ›Drake currently priced at 73% to finish #1, implying 27% probability of not being #1, which is higher than the 42% current probability for #2 specifically
- ›Bad Bunny shows 78% odds to be #1 in a separate contract, suggesting market expects top two positions to be contested between these artists
- ›Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny combined represent only 22% probability across their individual #1 contracts, indicating market confidence in a limited field of contenders
- ›The contracts aggregate from Kalshi with moderate volume ($117-$1062 in 24h trading), suggesting moderate liquidity but potential for repricing with new information
- ›Album releases and streaming campaigns between now and March 2026 could significantly shift market positioning among the top contenders
What moved the line
- Aug 5Drake↑4pp78→82¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Drake↓3pp15→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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