#2 Spotify artist in March
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 43% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
43%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will Drake be the #” vs “Who will be the top Spotify artist this year”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Drake be the #
Will Drake be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTUSA-26-DRA
Will Drake be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTTHIRD-26-DRA
Will Drake be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTRUNNERUP-26-DRA
Cluster 2
Who will be the top Spotify artist this year
Cluster 3
Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026
Cluster 4
will bad bunny be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 5
will taylor swift be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 33% probability that a specific artist will be ranked #2 on Spotify globally for March 2026. The forecast reflects tension between two prediction venues: Kalshi contracts averaging 35% versus Polymarket averaging 24%, suggesting disagreement about whether an artist other than the likely #1 will maintain strong streaming momentum. The probability level indicates meaningful uncertainty about March rankings, driven by the volatile nature of streaming metrics and unpredictable listener behavior across months. Spotify's monthly ranking data and release calendar significantly influence outcomes—major album drops or playlist placement shifts can rapidly alter streaming shares. The upcoming release of March 2026 Spotify charts will definitively resolve this question, making current positioning speculative based on streaming trends through late April.
- ›Kalshi contracts price Noah Kahan at 96¢ for top USA artist (April 28), while Drake trades at 8¢, indicating disagreement about current streaming leadership
- ›Polymarket values Bad Bunny at 63¢ for 2026 top artist annually, suggesting sustained high performance but not necessarily #2 ranking for a specific month
- ›Cross-venue spread of 11 percentage points between platforms suggests limited consensus; Kalshi's higher average may reflect more granular US-specific data versus global projections
- ›Major album releases or promotional campaigns occurring in early-to-mid March 2026 would materially shift monthly ranking outcomes
- ›Historical March 2025 Spotify rankings and typical seasonal streaming patterns provide limited predictive power given artist roster changes and listener behavior shifts
What moved the line
- Jun 22Bruno Mars↑7pp65→72¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Bad Bunny↑5pp8→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Taylor Swift↓4pp10→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Bruno Mars↑4pp65→69¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Bad Bunny↑3pp13→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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