Aston Villa vs Tottenham Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Aston Villa vs Tottenham Winner?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $48.45 in 24-hour volume matching its open interest, creating a dangerously thin order book with a 10¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $48.45 in 24-hour volume matching its open interest, creating a dangerously thin order book with a 10¢ spread. The Yes contract has surged dramatically from 45¢ to 57¢ over seven days (a 27% jump), yet the astronomical implied yields (1642.5% for Yes, 1099.5% for No) suggest severe mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment—these yields are only rational if the match resolves within days, not 27 days away. The Cliff Risk Index of 1 combined with the massive price movement and minimal liquidity indicates this market is highly susceptible to manipulation or reflects a data error, making it unreliable for serious prediction purposes.
Resolution rules
If Aston Villa wins the Aston Villa vs Tottenham professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 2, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEPLGAME-26MAY02AVLTOT-AVL yes 100